Probability Quotes

• The probability of success is difficult to estimate; but if we never search the chance of success is zero.

  Philip Morrison

  Zero, Chance, Difficult

  Philip Morrison (1997). “Nothing Is Too Wonderful to Be True”, p.180, Springer Science & Business Media

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• A reasonable probability is the only certainty.

  E. W. Howe

  Motivational, Certainty, Reasonable

  Sinner Sermons (p. 23)

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• It is a part of probability that many improbable things will happen.

  Aristotle

  Happens, Improbable

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• The most important thing in life is to stop saying 'I wish' and start saying 'I will.' Consider nothing impossible, then treat possibilities as probabilities.

  Charles Dickens

  Inspirational, Motivational, Determination

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• Probability theory is nothing but common sense reduced to calculation.

  Pierre-Simon Laplace

  Probability Theory, Common Sense, Calculations

  "Théorie Analytique Des Probabilités". Book by Pierre-Simon Laplace, second edition, 1814.

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• The probability that we may fail in the struggle ought not to deter us from the support of a cause we believe to be just.

  Abraham Lincoln

  Inspirational, Motivational, Perseverance

  The Sub-Treasury Speech Springfield, Illinois December 26, 1839

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• The first step is to establish that something is possible; then probability will occur.

  Elon Musk

  Inspirational, Firsts, Steps

  "Elon Musk: the new It Boy of Silicon Valley" by Jon Swaine, www.theguardian.com. May 24, 2014.

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• Probability is not a mere computation of odds on the dice or more complicated variants; it is the acceptance of the lack of certainty in our knowledge and the development of methods for dealing with our ignorance.

  Nassim Nicholas Taleb

  Ignorance, Acceptance, Odds

  Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2016). “Incerto 4-Book Bundle: Fooled by Randomness The Black Swan The Bed of Procrustes Antifragile”, p.1421, Random House

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• 

  All knowledge degenerates into probability.

  David Hume

  Knowledge, Science, Degenerates

  David Hume (2015). “A Treatise of Human Nature: Top Philosophy Collections”, p.144, 谷月社

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• The most important questions of life are indeed, for the most part, really only problems of probability.

  Pierre-Simon Laplace

  Risk, Important, Problem

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• We may not be able to get certainty, but we can get probability, and half a loaf is better than no bread.

  C. S. Lewis

  Food, Science, Half

  Christian Reflections Para. 22 (p. 111)

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• When a coincidence seems amazing, that's because the human mind isn’t wired to naturally comprehend probability & statistics.

  Neil deGrasse Tyson

  Mind, Statistics, Coincidence

  Twitter post from Jul 29, 2014

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• Life is a school of probability.

  Walter Bagehot

  Life, Art, Philosophy

  Quoted in Rudolf Flesch's The New Book of Unusual Quotations

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• The 50-50-90 rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there's a 90% probability you'll get it wrong.

  Andy Rooney

  Life, Education, Humor

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• A pinch of probability is worth a pound of perhaps.

  James Thurber

  Pounds

  Lanterns and Lances Such a Phrase as Drifts Through Dreams

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• We don't deal in absolutes. We deal in probabilities.

  Seth Klarman

  Deals, Absolutes

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• Ignorance gives one a large range of probabilities.

  George Eliot

  Ignorance, Giving, Range

  Daniel Deronda II xiii (p. 100)

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• Before you invest, you must ensure that you have realistically assessed your probability of being right and how you will react to the consequences of being wrong.

  Benjamin Graham

  Investing, Being Wrong, Consequence

  Benjamin Graham (1965). “The Intelligent Investor: A Book of Practical Counsel”, p.209, Prabhat Prakashan

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• Misunderstanding of probability may be the greatest of all impediments to scientific literacy.

  Stephen Jay Gould

  May, Literacy, Impediments

  Stephen Jay Gould (1995). “Dinosaur in a haystack: reflections in natural history”, Harmony

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• Consider nothing impossible, then treat possiblities as probabilities.

  Charles Dickens

  Impossible, Possibility, Treats

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• In the beginning there were only probabilities. The universe could only come into existence if someone observed it. It does not matter that the observers turned up several billion years later. The universe exists because we are aware of it.

  Martin Rees

  Science, Years, Matter

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• First, the only certainty is that there is no certainty. Second, every decision, as a consequence, is a matter of weighing probabilities. Third, despite uncertainty we must decide and we must act. And lastly, we need to judge decisions not only on the results, but on how they were made.

  Robert Rubin

  Judging, Decision, Needs

  Robert E. Rubin's Commencement Address at the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, www.treasury.gov. May 17, 1999.

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• Whatever way uncertainty is approached, probability is the only sound way to think about it.

  Dennis Lindley

  Thinking, Sound, Way

  "Understanding Uncertainty". Book by Dennis Lindley (Chapter 5 "The Rules of Probability", p. 71), 2006.

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• Death is always a constant possibility and probability and of course an inevitability, as well.

  Cornel West

  Possibility, Constant, Wells

  "Cornel West, 'Living And Loving Out Loud'". "Talk of the Nation" with Neal Conan, www.npr.org. October 29, 2009.

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• A miscalculation is not negligence, nor prudence a crime. I am a scientist. I base my action or inaction upon probability and evidence. There is a reason we call science a discipline! Inferior minds bolt or build pyres to roast the witches in their midst!

  Rick Yancey

  Discipline, Mind, Action

  Rick Yancey (2010). “The Monstrumologist: The Terror Beneath”, p.203, Simon and Schuster

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