Nassim Nicholas Taleb Quotes About Probability

Quotes about: Probability

• Failure saves lives. In the airline industry, every time a plane crashes the probability of the next crash is lowered by that.

  Nassim Nicholas Taleb

  Next, Crash, Save A Life

  Source: www.pbs.org

• Failure saves lives. In the airline industry, every time a plane crashes the probability of the next crash is lowered by that. The Titanic saved lives because we're building bigger and bigger ships. So these people died, but we have effectively improved the safety of the system, and nothing failed in vain.

  Nassim Nicholas Taleb

  Failure, People, Safety

  The Tavis Smiley Show, www.pbs.org. December 3, 2012.

• Probability and expectation are not the same. Its probability and probability times the pay off.

  Nassim Nicholas Taleb

  Expectations, Pay, Probability

• Probability is not a mere computation of odds on the dice or more complicated variants; it is the acceptance of the lack of certainty in our knowledge and the development of methods for dealing with our ignorance.

  Nassim Nicholas Taleb

  Ignorance, Acceptance, Odds

  Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2016). “Incerto 4-Book Bundle: Fooled by Randomness The Black Swan The Bed of Procrustes Antifragile”, p.1421, Random House

• I've debated many economists who claim to specialize in risk and probability: when one takes them slightly outside their narrow focus, but within the discipline of probability, they fall apart, with the disconsolate face of a gym rat in front of a gangster hit man.

  Nassim Nicholas Taleb

  Fall, Men, Gym Rats

  Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2012). “Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder”, p.245, Random House

• Probability is not about the odds, but about the belief in the existence of an alternative outcome, cause, or motive.

  Nassim Nicholas Taleb

  Odds, Alternatives, Outcomes

  Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2007). “Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets”, p.224, Penguin UK

• If you sat with a pencil and jotted down all the decisions you've taken in the past week, or, if you could, over your lifetime, you would realize that almost all of them have had asymmetric payoff, with one side carrying a larger consequence than the other. You decide principally based on fragility, not probability. Or to rephrase, You decide principally based on fragility, not so much on True/False.

  Nassim Nicholas Taleb

  Taken, Past, Decision

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