The first step is to establish that something is possible; then probability will occur.
Does the logic connect? What are the range of probably outcomes? You want to figure out what those probabilities are and ideally be the House. It's fine to gamble, as long as you're the House. Also, listen to critical feedback, particularly from friends. Generally they will be thinking it but they won't tell you.
What I'm trying to do is to maximise the probability of the future being better.
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