Probability Quotes - Page 10

• What geographic profiling does is it takes a look at the locations of a connected series of incidents - say murders in a serial murder case or robberies in a serial bank robber case - and it spatially analyzes the point pattern of incidents, and creates a probability surface from those, working from the basis of an algorithm that says people offend close to where they live, but not too close.

  Kim Rossmo

  People, Doe, Looks

  Source: www.macleans.ca

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• I have resigned from the professional undertaking of coin flipping. I am not here to tell you where gold's going to be. I have no idea. That's my existentialism. I am a student of uncertainty, I have no idea where the stock market is going to be. So when I am creating trades in my portfolio for my clients, I am agnostic. I just want to enhance the probability that I make money come what may.

  Hugh Hendry

  Ideas, Creating, Gold

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• Anything is possible, but not always probable. Innovators increase the probability of the impossible.

  Braden Kelley

  Impossible, Increase, Innovators

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• Time Management Tips: One can make a radar-like sweep of the horizon to identify time and task challenges while these are still manageable and while we still have a choice. The organizational adage, "the more parts, the more trouble," also applies to words. Multiplying words may actually multiply the probability of being misunderstood; economies in expression (without being taciturn or aloof) not only save time, but usually are more honest and more clear.

  Neal A. Maxwell

  Expression, Choices, Challenges

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• Very few people would choose to have even the most fabled assortment of goods if it meant getting cancer within the year. But the choice involves not the certainty of cancer very soon but an increased probability of cancer at some time in the future. The cancers are no less real; millions will die painfully and prematurely because of what we do to our environment. But the choice is not an easily visualizable one, and our capacity of denial comes strongly into play - as it tends to whenever we must weigh future costs against immediate benefits.

  Paul L Wachtel

  Real, Cancer, Years

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• I think we have to be very careful. If we do go back in, we need to understand why and what the probability of success is and exactly what we're going to do and what the limits are.

  Richard A. Clarke

  Success, Thinking, Needs

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• There is no error which hath not some appearance of probability resembling truth, which, when men who study to be singular find out, straining reason, they then publish to the world matter of contention and jangling.

  Walter Raleigh

  Men, Errors, Matter

  Sir Walter Raleigh (1829). “The history of the world”, p.112

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• Lies, fables and romances must needs be probable, but not the truth and foundation of our faith.

  Johann Georg Hamann

  Faith, Lying, Romance

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• Mental Management is the process of maximising the probability of having a consistent mental performance, under pressure, on demand

  Lanny Bassham

  Demand, Pressure, Management

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• The source of Pyrrhonism comes from failing to distinguish between a demonstration, a proof and a probability. A demonstration supposes that the contradictory idea is impossible; a proof of fact is where all the reasons lead to belief, without there being any pretext for doubt; a probability is where the reasons for belief are stronger than those for doubting.

  Andrew Michael Ramsay

  Ideas, Doubt, Stronger

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• Probability of human error is considerably higher than that of machine error.

  Kenneth Appel

  Science, Errors, Machines

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• Unlike cheap stocks, inexpensive asset classes have a lower chance of big drawdowns (broad asset classes don't go to zero) and a higher probability of average or better returns.

  Barry Ritholtz

  Zero, Average, Class

  Source: www.bloomberg.com

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• If you go back and look at the history of Supreme Court fights from the very beginning there is a corresponding interest, and and the intent of the interest of the Senate with, as it relates to the probability that the next appointee would alter the balance in the court.

  Joe Biden

  Fighting, Balance, Next

  Interview with Rachel Maddow, www.msnbc.com. February 18, 2016.

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• ... the novelist is bound by the reasonable possibilities, not the probabilities, of his culture.

  Flannery O'Connor

  Novelists, Culture, Possibility

  Flannery O'Connor (1969). “Mystery and Manners: Occasional Prose”, p.164, Macmillan

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• Liberty is a blessing so inestimable, that, wherever there appears any probability of recovering it, a nation may willingly run many hazards, and ought not even to repine at the greatest effusion of blood or dissipation of treasure.

  David Hume

  Running, Blessing, Blood

  David Hume (2016). “Delphi Complete Works of David Hume (Illustrated)”, p.874, Delphi Classics

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• Current organisms have a higher probability of sharing a single code if the common ancestry hypothesis is true than they'd have if the hypothesis of separate ancestry were true. That is, the simpler hypothesis has the higher likelihood in the technical sense of "likelihood" used in statistics.

  Elliott Sober

  Statistics, Ancestry, Common

  Source: www.3ammagazine.com

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• I have been too long acquainted with human nature to have great regard for human testimony; and a very great degree of probability, supported by various concurrent circumstances, conspiring in one point, will have much greater weight with me, than human testimony upon oath, or even upon honour; both of which I have frequently seen considerably warped by private views.

  Lord Chesterfield

  Truth, Views, Long

  Lord Chesterfield (1998). “Lord Chesterfield's Letters”, p.319, Oxford Paperbacks

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• This branch of mathematics [Probability] is the only one, I believe, in which good writers frequently get results which are entirely erroneous.

  Charles Sanders Peirce

  Believe, Branches, Mathematics

  Writings of Charles. Sanders Peirce Volume 3 (p. 279)

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• Leadership both projects to the future and reflects upon the past. It bursts with possibilities, flaunts peculiarities, and occasionally defies probabilities.

  Marcia Whicker

  Leadership, Past, Possibility

  Marcia Lynn Whicker (1996). “Toxic leaders: when organizations go bad”, Praeger Publishers

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• Evil grows and bears fruit, which is understandable, because it has logic and probability on its side and also, of course, strength. The resistance of tiny kernels of good, to which no one grants the power of causing far-reaching consequences, is entirely mysterious, however. Such seeming nothingness not only lasts but contains within itself enormous energy which is revealed gradually.

  Czeslaw Milosz

  Evil, Energy, Lasts

  "To Begin Where I Am: Selected Essays (If Only This Could Be Said)". Book edited and translated by Bogdana Carpenter and Madeline G. Levine, 2001.

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• We can never achieve absolute truth but we can live hopefully by a system of calculated probabilities.

  Agnes Meyer Driscoll

  Achieve, Absolute Truth, Hopefully

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• The more people you contact, the higher your sales will be because of the law of probabilities.

  Brian Tracy

  Law, People, Contact

  "Secrets of Success from Business Coach Brian Tracy". Interview with Deborah Jeanne Sergeant, homebusinessmag.com. December 07, 2015.

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• If you do not have at least an eight-month emergency fund, and you think there's a probability you could loose your job - and it's not just losing your job; you could be in a car accident, get sick - continue to pay the minimum on your credit card every month. Everything beyond that needs to go to establish an emergency fund. And if you have an emergency fund saved, then fund your retirement account before paying down credit card debt.

  Suze Orman

  Retirement, Jobs, Thinking

  "Debt vs. debt: Which loans do I pay off first?". "Today" Interview, www.today.com. May 6, 2009.

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• motivation is highest when the probability of success is 50 percent: We don't get involved if the task is too easy or too hard.

  Judith M Bardwick

  Motivation, Tasks, Easy

  Judith M. Bardwick (1995). “Danger in the Comfort Zone: From Boardroom to Mailroom--how to Break the Entitlement Habit That's Killing American Business”, p.63, AMACOM Div American Mgmt Assn

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• Rather, risk is a perception in each investor's mind that results from analysis of the probability and amount of potential loss from an investment. If an exploratory oil well proves to be a dry hole, it is called risky. If a bond defaults or a stock plunges in price, they are called risky. But if the well is a gusher, the bond matures on schedule, and the stock rallies strongly, can we say they weren't risky when the investment after it is concluded than was known when it was made.

  Seth Klarman

  Loss, Oil, Risk

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