Nate Silver Quotes - Page 2

Quotes about:

• First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.

  Nate Silver

  Thinking, Views, People

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• To be a very, very minor, eighth-tier celebrity, you realize, 'Hey, celebrities are just like us.'

  Nate Silver

  Hey, Realizing, Minors

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• In politics people build whole reputations off of getting one thing right.

  Nate Silver

  People, Reputation, Whole

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• You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.

  Nate Silver

  Trying, Want, Influence

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• I have the same friends and the same bad habits.

  Nate Silver

  Habit, Bad Habits

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• Accountability doesn't mean apologizing.

  Nate Silver

  Mean, Accountability, Apologizing

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• To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance.

  Nate Silver

  Real, Testing Yourself, Answers

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• Voters' memories will fade some.

  Nate Silver

  Memories, Voters, Fades

  "Romney Blasts Obama on the Middle East; Nate Silver on Horserace; Romney's Surge with Women; George Zimmerman's Mother Speaks; Alabama Student Killed". "Piers Morgan Tonight", edition.cnn.com. October 8, 2012.

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• If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.

  Nate Silver

  Data, Agendas, Tvs

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• The key to making a good forecast is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information.

  Nate Silver

  Keys, Information, Limiting Yourself

  Nate Silver (2012). “The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't”, p.72, Penguin

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• You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.

  Nate Silver

  Choices, Example, Arbitrary

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• People attach too much importance to intangibles like heart, desire and clutch hitting.

  Nate Silver

  Heart, People, Desire

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• I know it's cheaper to fund an op-ed columnist than a team of reporters, but I think it confuses the mission of what these great journalistic brands are about.

  Nate Silver

  Team, Thinking, Columnists

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• I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.

  Nate Silver

  Baseball, Data, Competition

  "Nate Silver: it's the numbers, stupid". Interview With Carole Cadwalladr, www.theguardian.com. November 17, 2012.

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• We look at all the polls, not just the Gallup Poll. So, it's kind of like if you have, you know, four out of five doctors agree that reducing cholesterol reduces your risk of a heart attack, Gallup is like the fifth doctor.

  Nate Silver

  Heart, Doctors, Risk

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• The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times. And so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.

  Nate Silver

  Ideas, Printing, Luther

  "'Signal' And 'Noise': Prediction As Art And Science". "Fresh Air" with Terry Gross, www.npr.org. October 10, 2012.

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• Whenever you have dynamic interactions between 300 million people and the American economy acting in really complex ways, that introduces a degree of almost chaos theory to the system, in a literal sense.

  Nate Silver

  People, Acting, Degrees

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• To my friends, I’m kind of sexually gay but ethnically straight.

  Nate Silver

  Gay, Kind, Sexually

  "Nate Silver: Person of the Year". Interview with Aaron Hicklin, www.out.com. December 18, 2012.

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• Expert estimates of probability are often off by factors of hundreds or
  thousands. [...] I used to be annoyed when the margin of error was high in
  a forecasting model that I might put together. Now I view it as perhaps the
  single most important piece of information that a forecaster provides. When
  we publish a forecast on FiveThirtyEight, I go to great lengths to document
  the uncertainty attached to it, even if the uncertainty is sufficiently
  large that the forecast won't make for punchy headlines.

  Nate Silver

  Views, Errors, Annoyed

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• Not only does political coverage often lose the signal—it frequently accentuates the noise.

  Nate Silver

  Political, Doe, Noise

  Nate Silver (2012). “The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't”, p.48, Penguin

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• All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.

  Nate Silver

  Writing, Want, Stuff

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• We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.

  Nate Silver

  Google, Marketing, World

  "Hit political blogger Nate Silver on future of predictive modeling". Interview with David K. Randall, www.reuters.com. November 9, 2012.

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• People still don't appreciate how ephemeral success is.

  Nate Silver

  People, Appreciate, Ephemeral

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• If you aren't taking a representative sample, you won't get a representative snapshot.

  Nate Silver

  Snapshots, Sample, Representatives

  "Hit political blogger Nate Silver on future of predictive modeling". Interview with David K. Randall, www.reuters.com. November 9, 2012.

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• If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.

  Nate Silver

  Computer, Busy, Ifs

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