The goal of forecasting is not to predict the future but to tell you what you need to know to take meaningful action in the present
The trouble with weather forecasting is that it's right too often for us to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it.
Forecasting is very difficult, especially when it involves the future.
The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.
Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future.
I think that intelligent forecasting (company revenues, earnings, etc.) should not seek to predict what will in fact happen in the future. Its purpose ought to be to illuminate the road, to point out obstacles and potential pitfalls and so assist management to tailor events and to bend them in a desired direction. Forecasting should be used as a device to put both problems and opportunities into perspective. It is a management tool, but it can never be a substitute for strategy, nor should it ever be used as the primary basis for portfolio investment decisions.
An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today.
The quest for certainty in forecasting outcomes can be the enemy of progress.
Never forget this simple truism: Forecasting is marketing, plain and simple.
Weather forecast for tonight: dark.
I have seen the future and it's like the present, only longer.
I believe in analysis and not forecasting.
I deal in facts, not forecasting the future. That's crystal ball stuff. That doesn't work.
Forecasting by bureaucrats tends to be used for anxiety relief rather than for adequate policy making.
Future forecasting is all about testing strategies - it's like a wind tunnel.
There are domains in which expertise is not possible. Stock picking is a good example. And in long-term political strategic forecasting, it's been shown that experts are just not better than a dice-throwing monkey.
Investing is an activity of forecasting the yield over the life of the asset; speculation is the activity of forecasting the psychology of the market.
If I have noticed anything over these 60 years on Wall Street, it is that people do not succeed in forecasting what`s going to happen to the stock market.
Now if you can recognize and memorize a grandmaster's game, and you have the respect to understand [Zimbabwean president Robert] Mugabe who has survived past anyone's expectations, and make the simple assumption it wasn't an accident, and you understand why he did what he did, now you're ready to predict ... The key to forecasting is to understand both the constraints nations are under and the manner in which the struggle for power shapes leaders.
The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.
Computer modelling for weather forecasting, and indeed for climate forecasting, has reached its limits.
Auto repair, piloting, skiing, perhaps even management: these are skills that yield to application, hard work, and native talent. But forecasting an uncertain future and deciding the best course of action in the face of that future are much less likely to do so. And much of what we've seen so far suggests that a large group of diverse individuals will come up with better and more robust forecasts and make more intelligent decisions than even the most skilled "decision maker."
Science is the key to our future, and if you don’t believe in science, then you’re holding everybody back. And it’s fine if you as an adult want to run around pretending or claiming that you don’t believe in evolution, but if we educate a generation of people who don’t believe in science, that’s a recipe for disaster. We talk about the Internet. That comes from science. Weather forecasting. That comes from science. The main idea in all of biology is evolution. To not teach it to our young people is wrong.
Satellite photography in the 1970's gave rise to the long-range weather forecast, a month at a time. This in turn gave rise to the observation that the long-range weather forecast was wrong most of the time. In turn, this gave rise to the dropping of the long-range weather forecast and to the admission that really accurate forecasting could only cover the next day or two, and not always then.
Don't be forecasting evil unless it is what you can guard against. Anxiety is good for nothing if we can't turn it into a defense.
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